richiesta urgente riprese sonda russa Phobos Grunt

Postali....

Dear Collegues,
Based on the recent predictions the Phobos Grunt sonda will return to the earth between 14-17 january. The official control support stopped because the govermental commission not allow to continue the "high risky" manoevers and tries.
The amateur observers/scientists continue to collect data about its state and its behaviours, the most well-based, good analysis of this observation data you can find on Simone Corbellini,s site here:
http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=phobos#MAP
And there are another interesting observations, based on radar echo technique, here:
http://www.ufogeek.com/phobos_grunt_space_fence.htm
The actuality or the apropos to make this short notes, that Ralf Vandebergh captured new picture(s) with his telescopes at early morning 28 dec, and he published one of it. His perviosly captured pictures had great pupularity on the web, because there were only, have enough details.
"Home" of the Ralpf,s pictures are here:
http://ralfvandebergh.startje.be/
http://tinyurl.com/23x9yjq
the discussion continues about it here:
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=10631&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=12195

Best wishes:
t.janos

Good bye Phobos-Grunt, or Welcome to return home (?)

I aked from heavens-abouve.com a 10-day long prediction about Phobos-Grunt sonda passes over Ferrara:
It dont contains any visible passes, this means, the pass, after the sunset or before the sunreise, in early morning, when it can be seen in the sushine.
In this time frame, 4 - 14 jan., it will be 44 passes, but can be note, the end of this time period, the prediction become very unshure, because its recently accepted reentry date is 15 jan, +- 2 days.
It can be note too, the reentry will be an extraordinaly event, and its exactly time and the place will be know in the last some hours only.
You would be follow this last hours on Simone,s web page:
http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=phobos#MAP

Best:
t.janos

satrack ha scritto:

Ecco i passaggi approssimati per Roma.

Simone

SATELLITE NAME, RISE TIME,CULMINATION TIME,SET TIME,SUN ELEVATION

PHOBOS-GRUNT Sun, 18/12/2011 06:31:37 Sun, 18/12/2011 06:35:40 Sun, 18/12/2011 06:39:44 -11
PHOBOS-GRUNT Mon, 19/12/2011 06:18:10 Mon, 19/12/2011 06:22:19 Mon, 19/12/2011 06:26:28 -13.4
PHOBOS-GRUNT Tue, 20/12/2011 06:04:15 Tue, 20/12/2011 06:08:27 Tue, 20/12/2011 06:12:39 -16
PHOBOS-GRUNT Wed, 21/12/2011 05:49:51 Wed, 21/12/2011 05:54:04 Wed, 21/12/2011 05:58:17 -18.7
PHOBOS-GRUNT Thu, 22/12/2011 05:34:58 Thu, 22/12/2011 05:39:10 Thu, 22/12/2011 05:43:23 -21.4
PHOBOS-GRUNT Thu, 22/12/2011 07:08:25 Thu, 22/12/2011 07:12:09 Thu, 22/12/2011 07:15:53 -5.1
PHOBOS-GRUNT Fri, 23/12/2011 05:19:35 Fri, 23/12/2011 05:23:46 Fri, 23/12/2011 05:27:57 -24.3
PHOBOS-GRUNT Fri, 23/12/2011 06:53:08 Fri, 23/12/2011 06:56:47 Fri, 23/12/2011 07:00:26 -7.8
PHOBOS-GRUNT Sat, 24/12/2011 06:37:19 Sat, 24/12/2011 06:40:54 Sat, 24/12/2011 06:44:28 -10.6
PHOBOS-GRUNT Sun, 25/12/2011 06:20:58 Sun, 25/12/2011 06:24:29 Sun, 25/12/2011 06:28:00 -13.5
PHOBOS-GRUNT Sat, 24/12/2011 06:37:19 Sat, 24/12/2011 06:40:53 Sat, 24/12/2011 06:44:28 -10.6
PHOBOS-GRUNT Sun, 25/12/2011 06:20:58 Sun, 25/12/2011 06:24:29 Sun, 25/12/2011 06:28:00 -13.5
PHOBOS-GRUNT Wed, 28/12/2011 07:01:52 Wed, 28/12/2011 07:05:22 Wed, 28/12/2011 07:08:53 -6.6

Tempo in UT?

Appena possibile invio i dati, ma ricordatemelo fra qualche giorno, che adesso siamo impegnati sui numerosi eventi TLE, ripresi dal centro Italia.
Saluti

Finally, here is a great video from Thierry Legault:
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2012/0036.html
http://legault.perso.sfr.fr/phobos-grunt.html
best:
t.janos

Uauh...

Very Beatiful.

Ferruccio Zanotti

In this moment, we hope, this new wideo will give some data to support (validate or reject) two unshure event/observations, and connected expanations:
- there was news at the second half in nov. that something small item was berak out from the sonda, and returned to the earth. It was speculation, that was the so called small return capsule or all the return modul, sitting top of the sonda. Try to "reanalyzing" the fremaes in the Thierries video, we hope to find some small trace of this parts or the missing places of them.
- Appeared a new explanation/theory, which can help to understand some unwaited elements of its behavour in the last 2 months. This can be sumarize in a short form here: (as I recived in personal mail from the author)
=====================================
"... from Ted Molchan's grafs on area/mass dependency and independently from some TLE processing (come up) an idea that FG lost 1 to 2 ton of mass since launch and probably still losing in (not sure here) at 20 to 40 kg/day speed
This amount is just impossible to lose at maneuvering - there are just around 500 Kg in total acceptable for maneuvering engines - and furthermore that amount is out of their life cycle
That is unbelievable that NORAD will miss peace of junk 500 - 1500 Kg in mass
So, ... it looks like there is a leak in fuel tank (actually in oxidant for some additional reasons)
So, this is a possible scenario:
immediately after (or even during) detach of FG from launching vehicle it got an or some leak in oxidant tank
parasitic reactive moment and mass decentralization led to Solar orientation/stabilization NOT achieved needed precision (less than 2 deg/second remaining rotation)
thus, star orientation failed
thus, MDU did not fire. (in the second orbit of its life)
thus, no exchange with Earth - as there was NO exchange with Earth from low orbit programmed."
======================================
We hope something small moving details from the video, which reffer to this supposed events.
There remained really a short time for us, try to collect data support such explantions, unshure theories, and try to understand the situation over there. Thierries video is a great help in this.
t.janos

Potrebbe essere lei in questa ripresa di una meteora?
May be it (just left Jupiter) in this image of a meteor?

Il rientro è previsto oggi 15 gennaio fra le 16 e le 23 UT, sguinzagliate le videocamere

Non dovrebbe interessare il nostro paese, anche se un passagio sul Nord-Italia dovrebbe avvenire attorno alle 18:20 UT

Ferruccio

Io purtroppo ho le telecamere fuori uso in questo periodo.
Qualcuno l'ha ripresa stasera?
Anche se da quel che posso intuire, durante il passaggio previsto intorno alle 18:30 il satellite dovrebbe essere talmente basso da essere in eclisse quindi non riflette la luce solare....

Le prima stime indicano che sia rientrata sopra l'oceano pacifico fra Australia e Nuova Zelanda

Ferruccio

Qui un interessante articolo:

http://danielegasparri.blogspot.com/2012/01/la-sonda-phobos-grunt-e-rientrata-in.html